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The impact of last year’s pandemic persisting till date, is concrete evidence to suggest that climate change is real. There were numerous natural disasters apart from the Covid-19 Pandemic including massive earthquakes, floods, wildfires and locust attacks among many others. Armed conflicts were also evident, the most recent and highlighted conflicts were between Azerbaijan and Armenia; Ethiopian Tigray conflict; tense clashes between India and China; and the ongoing tumultuous conflicts in Syria, Iraq, Ukraine, Yemen, etc.
However, it is imperative to highlight that no rigorous correlational evidence exists to support that climate change tensions lead to an armed conflict. Nevertheless there is some sense of affirmation to the statement, considering the situation in the most vulnerable countries to climate change; where out of 20 such countries, 12 are engaged in conflicts, especially those in Yemen, or the DRC which have qualified to the levels of being a Non-International Armed Conflict under international humanitarian law. Further, even though climate change does not necessarily induce an armed conflict; armed conflicts often cause climate change conditions.
1. Climate Change leads to scarcity of basic resources for livelihood
One of the worst effects of climate change has been the depletion of freshwater and groundwater reserves. Without water, activities such as agriculture and its subsidiary activities suffer. It becomes even significant when we consider that most of these countries are agrarian, where the major portions of the population are engaged in activities involving pastoralism, fishery, herding etc. Climate change has stolen many people’s occupation since generations, which causes a sense of insecurity and unrest amongst the populace, ultimately resulting in clashes with the authority.
2. Intermingling of different communities for limited resources
When resources are limited, it is inevitable that there will be a fight for securing the most for oneself, against another. When cattle herders and agricultural farmers are pushed to share diminishing resources due to a changing climate, there is a possibility of stirred tensions in places that lack strong governance and inclusive institutions. West Africa was hit by a long drought in the 1970s that led to a famine which created survivorship challenges for many countries.
During the 70s, many of these African countries had recently acquired independence from their colonial rulers and were already suffering as underdeveloped newly formed countries. Considering this reality, it became enormously difficult for them to manage a crisis as the drought. Further, power struggle was common and the region was infested with dictatorial regimes, effects of which continue to date in many regions.
Due to such extreme conditions, groups such as pastoralists often gathered in areas close to water sources, creating tensions with farmers and fishermen. State officials and potential state support were absent because of the violence and thus, considerably limiting humanitarian access.
3. Migration due to Climate Change
Intra-national migrations are not always a welcomed situation for most, especially when there is widespread violence and scarcity of resources, with increased consumers. Violence often erupts when people associate belongingness to the natural amenities for life, such as water. There is an overhanging sword on the “heads” of countries which are exposed to the threat of rising water level. States like Maldives, Indonesia, Kiribati, etc. are all exposed to the threats of water level rise, and by the end of this century, it is predicted that major, if not all parts of these countries will be submerged under water. It raises many questions of international significance.
There are questions of extreme climate conditions, such as Yemen, where other than the ongoing armed conflict has led to thousands of casualties, and equal figures forced to migrate, is the fact that the country is nearly out of water. Somewhat similar is the plight of people in Western Afghanistan, where they are forced to be displaced due to scarcity of water. The ongoing conflict in Afghanistan has made it one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to climate change.
4. Armed conflicts and Climate Change
Armed conflicts have always wreaked havoc on the climatic conditions. The prime example is WWII. This period witnessed heavy militarization. Chemical warfare was prominent both on and off battlefields. Aerial warfare also led to widespread noise and air pollution. Marine life was also severely affected due to sunken naval ships and the oil spill caused by them. Finally, the most tragic incident was the use of atomic bombs against Japan, that instantly destroyed all life and structure within their path.
After the end of the WWII, the era of decolonization surfaced. New countries were gaining independence from their European colonizers but were often left in turmoil. This led to civil wars in almost all of Africa. The effects of these wars are evident to date.
This was followed by the wars of desert in the Middle East, the Gulf War and the Iraq War, the most destructive aspects of which were oil fires. 80% of Kuwait’s oil reservoirs were destroyed by the Iraqi forces. There are numerous ongoing conflicts as well, which have already been mentioned previously, which also have their equal share towards deteriorating the climate.
There have been considerable instances of attacks on the natural environment during armed conflicts.
For example, attacks on oil processing facilities in Saudi Arabia in 2019, caused substantial emission of carbon dioxide. In fact, armed conflict often results in widespread green-house gases, due to their emission from arms and artillery, and combat vehicles etc.
They also cause loss of wildlife. The civil war in Mozambique decimated substantial portions of their wildlife, especially their buffaloes, hippos, and elephants. Elephants were killed to feed the soldiers, and the ivory traded to purchase ammunition.
They often also result in deforestation, for the purpose of establishing military bases deep in the greens. However, in the aftermath of war, the earlier unavailable areas are made accessible for the general population to exploit and exacerbate the perils of deforestation and disturbance to wildlife ultimately.
It is however, prohibited under the customary international humanitarian law to deliberately attack the natural environment, including the destruction of natural resources and the use of techniques for environmental modification (infecting water sources, destroying wildlife, etc.)
5. Disparity in the causal relationship, and preparedness for Climate Change
It is notable that the effects of Climate Change are not equal in all places. There are many geopolitical, historical and physical factors which influence these impacts. For example, in the case of sea-level rise, the ice melting from glaciers and ice-concentrated areas does not settle into the areas of origin, but drifts away. This is also due to the geographic phenomena of submergence and alleviation of lands along with the difference in gravity concentration, across the globe. Rise in sea level does not only cause the horrors of landmass shrinkage, but also causes geographical tensions around the maritime boundaries of countries. Restriction of landmass of a country raises concerns regarding change in its base line, and loss of its territory (which is a resource in itself) as well as the loss of affiliated resources. Such a situation leaves the population fighting for the limited resources available. Population density also increases and causes ambiguity about the sea boundaries, possibly resulting into skirmishes with the neighbours sharing land/sea boundaries. There were close calls of conflict between Iceland and the UK many times known as the “Cod Wars” where the two States were close to a full-blown war due to Iceland’s expansion of maritime borders, resultantly subtracting UK’s access to fisheries. However, the same was ultimately averted due to settlements. Thus, it is likely that changing borders may escalate armed conflicts in future.
There are other challenges such as salinization of estuaries, a major source of freshwater for coastal areas. It is often predicted that a global war for fresh water is likely in near future. However, the most notable fact of the matter is the disparity in between the abilities to fend off the effects of Climate Change. Not all countries have the resources and the means to repulse Climate Change. They can be either in terms of natural resources, or monetary might. Desperate situations often escalate into violence, and when basic necessity such as water becomes the matter of a war, it is likely to have widespread effects, beyond boundaries.
It is not wrong to say that most of this talk is hypothetical. But it is also not wrong to say that there exists an undoubtable linkage between climate change and armed conflicts. Many countries are already showing signs of possible confrontation based on the future outcomes of climate change. For example, Indonesia claiming some of the islands in Malaysia, Palau and Tuvalu region to be theirs or construction of islands and their inhabitation by the People’s Republic of China in the South China Sea. It is likely that in the near future, countries in these regions may resort to armed retaliation for survivorship. Another potential cause of war is the construction in coastal areas like the artificial islands in South China Sea or by the UAE in Arabian Sea which lead to depletion of natural strength of coastlines, making them more prone to sink. They also fend off the strength to sustain cyclones and tsunamis. The effects of coastal depletion may be international.
Other interesting aspects of climate change are the possible Space War between states to create settlements beyond the planet Earth, or Construction Wars, to create artificial landmasses etc. Let us reserve that discussion for a later date.
This article has been authored by Tanmay Dhiman, a 5th year B.Com LL.B. student of University Institute of Legal Studies, Panjab University, Chandigarh.
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